新IP“星星人”迅速崛起，Labubu产能提升10倍后依旧售罄，摩根大通上调泡泡玛特至“增持”

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley upgraded Pop Mart's rating from "Neutral" to "Overweight" and raised the target price from 300 HKD to 320 HKD, citing strong performance of popular IPs and attractive valuation as key factors [2][3][4] Group 1: Strong IP Performance - The continued success of Labubu and the rapid rise of the new IP "Star People" demonstrate Pop Mart's ability to diversify its IP portfolio, reducing reliance on a single IP [1][3][10] - Labubu's production capacity has increased tenfold compared to Q1 2025, yet Labubu 3.0 and Mini Labubu remain sold out across all regions, dispelling market concerns about demand sustainability [5][10] - The new IP "Star People" is expected to contribute 8% to total sales by 2027, indicating strong market acceptance and a growing fan base [10][11] Group 2: Attractive Valuation - Pop Mart's stock price has declined 24% from its recent high of 335.40 HKD to 254 HKD, while the Hang Seng Index rose 7% during the same period, suggesting overly pessimistic market expectations [12][14] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 5-7% increase in earnings estimates for 2025 to 2027, with projected sales growth of 165% and adjusted profit growth of 276% for 2025 [15][16] - The current forecasted P/E ratio for 2026 is only 20 times, which is attractive compared to other lower-quality consumer goods companies [17] Group 3: Global Supply Chain and Pricing Power - Morgan Stanley believes that the financial impact of global trade tensions on Pop Mart will be limited, as the company has prepared inventory for the 2025 Q4 shopping season [19][20] - The company has the ability to raise prices to offset rising costs, having successfully increased blind box prices by 12% and plush toy prices by 27% in April 2025 [20][21] - Pop Mart is planning six global manufacturing centers to support long-term expansion, with sales contribution from the Americas expected to rise from 21% in 2025 to 28% in 2027 [22][23]