光伏周价格 | 光伏价格走势如何？反“内卷”政策执行力度将是关键

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain prices are expected to remain stable at high levels due to policy support, despite pressures from supply and demand dynamics [17]. Group 1: Polysilicon Segment - The overall inventory in the industry has risen to over 410,000 tons, with polysilicon inventory continuing to show a slight accumulation trend this month [5]. - Market transactions for polysilicon are generally sluggish, with a decrease in order volume month-on-month. Prices remain stable due to stable operating rates at wafer companies and their substantial polysilicon inventory [5]. - Some polysilicon manufacturers are experiencing maintenance or production cuts, leading to limited sales volumes and fewer new orders, with delivery times extended to November [5][6]. Group 2: Wafer Segment - Current wafer inventory is around 19 GW, with no significant changes in total volume, but a continued focus on 210RN wafers, which are facing shipping pressures and price declines [8]. - The demand for 183N wafers has seen a temporary pullback, with some second and third-tier manufacturers resorting to low-price sales. Demand for 210N remains relatively strong, keeping prices firm [8]. - Wafer prices are under pressure, with risks of decline, although recent self-discipline meetings have provided some confidence for price stabilization or even increases [9]. Group 3: Cell Segment - Battery inventory has risen to about 7 days, showing a slight accumulation trend due to reduced shipments during holidays and weak terminal demand [10]. - The demand for 183N batteries has decreased overseas, while 210RN demand remains weak. However, domestic demand for 210N is relatively optimistic [10]. - Short-term price pressures are evident for 210RN and 183N batteries, with potential for price corrections, while 210N maintains a balanced supply-demand relationship, providing price support [11]. Group 4: Module Segment - Overall terminal market demand is not optimistic, with overseas installation demand experiencing a temporary decline, while domestic demand is primarily supported by centralized projects [12]. - Upstream price increases are pushing up downstream costs, but module manufacturers are facing weak terminal demand, leading to limited price increases despite higher bidding prices [12]. - The impact of anti-involution policies will be crucial in determining future price trends in the industry [12].