黄金暴涨，它的顶在哪里？

Core Viewpoint - Gold has become one of the hottest investment assets in recent years, with a significant increase in value and a high risk-reward ratio over the past decade [2][3]. Group 1: Gold's Performance - Over the last ten years, gold ETFs have only experienced two years of decline, with the maximum annual drop being -7% and a 45% increase in gold prices this year [3][4]. - The performance of the Huashan Gold ETF shows substantial annual returns, with 2025 projected at 45.27%, 2024 at 27.45%, and 2023 at 16.34% [4]. Group 2: Investment Logic of Gold - Various investment logics surround gold, including its reflection of currency credit, its inverse relationship with real interest rates, its correlation with the US dollar index, its safe-haven attributes during economic downturns, and its performance during inflation [5][6]. - The underlying anchor for gold pricing is the concept of currency credit, which has been a consistent factor over decades [6]. Group 3: Quantitative Model for Gold Pricing - The increase in US government debt is closely related to gold prices; as confidence in government debt wanes, investors turn to gold as a reliable asset [8]. - Historical analysis suggests that if the US debt has increased significantly since the 1960s and 1970s, the fair value of gold could be estimated between $3,742 and $4,636 based on past debt levels [9][11]. Group 4: Conclusion - The article does not assert that gold should necessarily rise to the estimated values but aims to provide a quantitative model for understanding gold pricing [14]. - The discussion encourages further exploration of how gold should be reasonably priced, acknowledging that market behavior may not always align with rational pricing models [14].