“最严”新国标下的电动自行车产业变局

Core Viewpoint - The new national standard for electric bicycles, set to be implemented on September 1, 2025, aims to enhance safety and performance while phasing out older models, with significant changes in weight limits, materials, and technical requirements [3][10]. Summary by Sections Changes in New National Standard - The weight limit for lithium battery electric bicycles remains at 55 kg, while the limit for lead-acid battery bicycles is increased to 63 kg, improving range and reducing charging frequency [5]. - The proportion of plastic materials in the overall weight of the bicycle is reduced to a maximum of 5.5%, enhancing fire resistance and safety, although this may affect the aesthetic design of bicycles [6]. - New anti-tampering requirements for battery packs, controllers, and speed limiters are introduced, making it technically more difficult to modify key parameters such as maximum speed [8]. - The requirement for mandatory pedal installation is removed for purely electric vehicles, while those with electric assist must still have pedal functionality [9]. - The introduction of BeiDou positioning and real-time communication for commercial electric bicycles is mandated, enhancing safety and tracking capabilities [6]. - Stricter regulations for manufacturers are established, requiring production capabilities that match the output of electric bicycles, which may lead to increased industry concentration and the exit of smaller brands [6][10]. Industry Impact and Historical Context - The electric bicycle industry has evolved from a fragmented market with low-quality products to a more concentrated and higher-quality market since the introduction of the 2018 national standard [12][14]. - The 2018 standard led to a significant increase in average prices and market concentration, with leading brands like Yadea and Aima increasing their market share from 30% to 52% between 2018 and 2021 [14]. - The upcoming 2025 standard is expected to further accelerate the exit of long-tail brands and enhance the efficiency of leading brands in sales channels [14]. - The dual impact of the new standard and trade-in policies in 2025 is anticipated to boost sales, although it may also lead to a demand pull-forward, potentially affecting future sales [16]. Brand Strategies and Market Dynamics - Brands like Niu and Ninebot have positioned themselves in the high-end market, with Niu launching premium products as early as 2015, while Ninebot capitalized on the 2018 standard to rapidly gain market share [17]. - Traditional brands are also focusing on high-end product development, with innovations in battery technology and smart features to meet evolving consumer demands [17].