行业透视 | 上海二手房“怪象”：9 成小区下调挂牌价，房价却现止跌势头

Core Viewpoint - In September 2025, Shanghai's real estate market showed a unique pattern of "price reduction promoting transactions, and stable prices in transactions," driven by a significant increase in new home sales and a high percentage of price reductions in listings [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The number of new home transactions in Shanghai surged by 49% month-on-month in September, which boosted the activity in the second-hand housing market [3]. - Over 91% of neighborhoods in Shanghai saw a decrease in listing prices, with an average decline of 13.6% over the past year [4][5]. - The transaction volume of second-hand homes exceeded 18,000 units in September, marking a 3% increase from the previous month, with 45% of neighborhoods experiencing a rise in transaction prices [3][6]. Group 2: Price Trends - The number of neighborhoods with rising transaction prices increased by 21% in September, indicating a recovery in market activity [6]. - The bargaining space for second-hand homes narrowed to 15%, the lowest level since 2024, reflecting a more stable buyer sentiment [10]. - Among different types of neighborhoods, 47% of essential demand neighborhoods saw price increases, compared to 42% in improvement neighborhoods, highlighting the strength of essential demand in stabilizing prices [14]. Group 3: Market Segmentation - The price distribution among neighborhoods displayed a "vertical olive shape," indicating significant price differentiation and uncertainty in future price trends [18]. - Certain districts, such as Nanchiao and Jinshan, showed over 60% of high-frequency trading neighborhoods with price declines, while others like Gongfu Gongkang had over 60% with price increases, emphasizing the fragmented nature of the market [18].