华东地区集运欧线市场调研：周期拐点已至，还是昙花一现？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in shipping rates and trade dynamics between Asia and Europe, highlighting the impact of geopolitical events and economic conditions on the supply and demand in the shipping industry [3][5][11]. Demand Side: Resilience Expected but Growth May Slow - The shipping trade volume from Asia to Europe has seen a year-on-year growth of approximately 10%, which is historically high, but the price elasticity of shipping rates is lower than last year [5][11]. - Different freight forwarding companies report varying experiences regarding cargo volume, with most indicating an increase, but the perception of growth differs based on customer structure and product types [5][7]. - Factors driving significant growth in imports from China to Europe include cost advantages of Chinese products, shifts in export destinations due to tariffs, policy-driven stockpiling behaviors, and environmental factors such as high summer temperatures in Europe [7][10]. - The demand for certain categories, particularly textiles, machinery, and electric vehicles, remains strong, although the overall growth rate is expected to slow in the coming year [11]. Supply Side: Continued Loose Supply Conditions - The restructuring of shipping alliances has led to an increase in overall market capacity and the introduction of new shipping routes, affecting pricing dynamics and cargo strategies [13]. - The market is experiencing a loosening of supply as the benefits from the additional shipping routes due to geopolitical tensions diminish, leading to more scheduled repairs and maintenance of vessels [16][19]. - The delivery of new ships is expected to slow down next year, but some companies still face significant delivery pressures, which may contribute to ongoing supply looseness [19]. - The introduction of more car carriers is expected to divert container shipping volumes, particularly for electric vehicles, thereby reducing demand on container shipping routes to Europe [22].