猪价跌到“至暗时刻”，生猪困局何时能解？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the pig farming industry, highlighting the imbalance between supply and demand, the impact of seasonal factors, and the expected price movements in the near and long term [4][6][14]. Supply Side - The production capacity of breeding sows remains high, with no effective reduction despite long-term profitability in the industry. The industry is expected to face a dual loss situation for piglets and fattening pigs starting from late September [10]. - Even if the culling of sows begins in October, significant supply pressure relief will not occur until after August 2026. The supply may remain excessive until June 2026, depending on the culling pace of the breeding sector [10]. Demand Side - Seasonal demand is anticipated to increase due to the drop in temperatures, with a boost in demand for cured meats in November and December, as well as pre-festival consumption leading up to the Spring Festival [12]. - The absolute low prices may also stimulate consumption, potentially providing a floor for short-term pig prices [12]. Market Outlook - In the near term, low-priced contracts have limited downward space, but there is also no upward momentum, with future movements expected to follow spot market fluctuations [5][14]. - The current contango structure in the futures market indicates that both near-month and long-month contracts have seen significant declines, with the near-month contracts approaching cash flow costs [14]. - The price of live pigs has dropped below 12 yuan/kg, leading to panic selling among some farmers, which has further accelerated the price decline. However, the weight of pigs continues to increase, indicating that short-term capacity clearing is unlikely without a significant demand increase [8][10].