国泰海通证券研究·2025-10-16 12:24Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms is expected to maintain rapid growth in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 58.63% due to strong market conditions and improved performance [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - It is anticipated that the adjusted operating revenue of 42 listed securities firms will increase by 32.02% year-on-year to 395.48 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 58.63% to 165.15 billion yuan [1]. - For Q3 2025, the adjusted operating revenue is projected to be 148.15 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.45% and a year-on-year increase of 27.15%, while net profit is expected to reach 61.13 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.94% and a year-on-year increase of 48.74% [1]. Group 2: Business Contribution Analysis - The brokerage business is expected to contribute the most to the revenue growth, accounting for 48.32% of the adjusted revenue increase, primarily driven by a significant rise in market trading volume in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - The investment business is projected to contribute 38.14% to the adjusted operating revenue growth, as the equity market shows marginal improvements compared to the high base in Q3 2024 [2]. - Investment banking revenue is expected to increase by 21.84% to 24.82 billion yuan, benefiting from a recovery in A-share and Hong Kong stock financing, while asset management revenue is forecasted to decline by 0.81% to 32.2 billion yuan due to falling management fees [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The influx of incremental funds into the market is ongoing, supported by a new assessment method for insurance companies that encourages higher equity allocations, favoring undervalued blue-chip stocks with high return on equity [3]. - In the context of increased retail investor participation, it is recommended to focus on companies with strong earnings elasticity in Q3 [3].