国泰海通｜宏观：M2增速：为何小幅回落——2025年9月金融数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The slowdown in government bond issuance and the pace of RMB appreciation are the main reasons for the decline in M2 growth, while the marginal decrease in corporate foreign exchange settlement tendencies is also a contributing factor [1][2]. Group 1: Social Financing - In September 2025, the stock of social financing growth slightly decreased to 8.7% from the previous 8.8%, with new social financing amounting to 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan [1]. - New government bonds issued amounted to 1.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 347.1 billion yuan, while loans (social financing caliber) added 1.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 366.2 billion yuan, with the loan balance dropping to 6.6% year-on-year [1]. - Corporate bond issuance increased by 10.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 203.1 billion yuan, with local government bonds net financing increasing by 120 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Credit - In September, new credit amounted to 1.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 300 billion yuan, with both corporate and household loans continuing to decline [2]. - The main support for credit stability comes from short-term loans to enterprises, which saw significant increases at the end of the quarter, reflecting local governments' efforts to resolve triangular debts and actual financing needs driven by production activities [1][2]. - The PMI production index showed a notable increase in September, indicating a recovery in the traditional economy under the initial effects of the "anti-involution" policy [1]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The M2 growth rate in September was 8.4%, down from 8.8%, while M1 growth rebounded to 7.2% from 6.0% [2]. - The decline in M2 growth is attributed to the slowdown in government bond issuance and a decrease in corporate foreign exchange settlements, influenced by the RMB's rapid appreciation and subsequent fluctuations in the US dollar index [2]. - Looking ahead, the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to introduce a series of incremental policies, with room for total policy adjustments, while the RMB still holds potential for appreciation under a supportive liquidity environment [2].