Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that short-term market adjustments during a bull market are normal and should not deter investors from maintaining a long-term perspective on their investments [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share market is currently experiencing fluctuations due to various macroeconomic and policy changes, but the overall trend remains intact [7]. - Historical data shows that during past bull markets, the Shanghai Composite Index has experienced declines of over 5% multiple times, particularly in the mid-stages of a bull market [5][6]. - The current market environment is characterized by a low interest rate, which enhances the attractiveness of equity investments compared to fixed income [8]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the Shanghai Composite Index is at 5.17%, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [8]. - The ratio of total A-share market capitalization to GDP is approximately 74.72%, which is significantly lower than previous bull market peaks, suggesting room for growth [12]. - The financing balance in the A-share market is at 2.49% of the total market capitalization, indicating that the market is not overheated compared to the 2015 peak of 4.72% [13]. Group 3: Investment Drivers - The current bull market is supported by multiple drivers, including low interest rates, improving corporate cash flows, and government policies favoring technological innovation [15][16]. - Emerging industries such as AI, robotics, and semiconductors are expected to continue their growth trajectory, providing further investment opportunities [15]. - The improvement in operating cash flow for listed companies and a decline in capital expenditures are contributing to a favorable environment for stock valuations [16].
牛市中出现短期调整,如何才能拿好手中筹码?
雪球·2025-10-16 13:00