新IP“星星人”迅速崛起，Labubu产能提升10倍后依旧售罄，摩根大通上调泡泡玛特至“增持”

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the fundamentals of Pop Mart have not changed but have instead strengthened, and the market's panic presents an excellent allocation opportunity [1] Group 1: Rating and Price Target Adjustment - On October 15, Morgan Stanley upgraded Pop Mart's rating from "Neutral" to "Overweight," raising the target price from 300 HKD to 320 HKD based on two key factors [2] - The first factor is the continued strength of popular IPs, with Labubu's production capacity increased tenfold compared to Q1, yet Labubu 3.0 and Mini Labubu remain sold out in all regions [2][5] - The new IP "Star People" is rapidly emerging, expected to contribute 8% of sales in 2027 [2][10] Group 2: Valuation and Market Sentiment - The second factor is the significant improvement in valuation, with the stock price down 24% from its August peak while the Hang Seng Index rose 7%, leading to a more attractive risk-reward ratio with a projected 20x P/E for 2026 [3][11] - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that Pop Mart's success is not reliant on a single IP, showcasing its global layout and strong pricing power to withstand external risks [3] Group 3: Core Engine and Demand Sustainability - Labubu remains the core engine of growth for Pop Mart, with its astonishing popularity supporting the company's expansion [4] - Despite a tenfold increase in Labubu's production capacity, the products remain sold out, dispelling market concerns about sustainable demand [5] Group 4: New IP Development - The new IP "Star People" is proving the company's ability to diversify its IP matrix, with products from the Halloween series selling out within minutes on major online platforms [8] - The secondary market shows a premium of 130% for "Star People," indicating a genuine fan base rather than just a substitute for Labubu [9][10] Group 5: Financial Projections and Growth - Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings forecasts for Pop Mart by 5-7% for 2025-2027, with expected sales and adjusted profits for 2025 growing by 165% and 276% year-on-year, respectively [14][15] - The company is projected to continue strong growth in 2026, with sales and profits expected to grow by 28% and 29% year-on-year [15] Group 6: Global Supply Chain and Trade Risks - Morgan Stanley believes that concerns over global trade friction and tariff risks will have a limited financial impact on Pop Mart [17] - The company has prepared inventory for the 2025 Q4 shopping season to mitigate recent tariff fluctuations and has the ability to raise prices to offset cost increases [18] - Morgan Stanley estimates that a price increase of about 15% would fully offset the impact of tariffs on gross margins in the Americas [19] Group 7: Global Expansion Strategy - To support long-term global expansion, Pop Mart is planning six major manufacturing centers (four in China and two overseas) [20] - Sales contribution from the Americas is expected to rise from approximately 21% in 2025 to 28% in 2027, with overseas business contributing nearly 60% to group earnings by 2027 [21] - The increasing uncertainty of tariffs may accelerate the company's global supply chain layout, fundamentally reducing geopolitical risks [22]