Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that AI currently acts more as a "distribution layer" rather than a replacement for classified information platforms, altering the starting point of user searches while core transactions and data remain under the control of these platforms [2][4]. Group 1: Current Landscape - The integration of AI, particularly ChatGPT, is reshaping how users discover information, posing potential challenges to traffic-dependent internet platforms [4]. - In the short term, the involvement of AI may even reinforce the positions of industry leaders, as established platforms maintain their brand and data advantages [9][11]. - The collaboration between platforms like Zillow and ChatGPT enhances user experience through conversational search, allowing platforms to avoid the costs and risks associated with developing large language models [10]. Group 2: User Interaction and Data Dependency - Users are shifting their initial interactions to AI conversational interfaces, but the underlying transaction facilitation and data support still rely on existing platforms [6][7]. - ChatGPT's application tends to interact directly with established brands rather than aggregating information from multiple sources, thereby solidifying the "moat" of leading companies in vertical markets [11]. Group 3: Long-term Risks - Despite optimistic short-term prospects, there are warnings about long-term risks, particularly if users begin to conduct their entire search journey within ChatGPT, which could diminish the brand exposure of specialized websites [13]. - Two potential risks are highlighted: first, if a dominant AI assistant like ChatGPT controls search result visibility and commercialization policies, it could shift industry dominance from content platforms to interactive interfaces [14]. - Second, if AI starts to erode direct access traffic to platforms, it could significantly weaken brand loyalty, as approximately 50% of leading classified platforms' traffic comes from direct access [14]. Group 4: Future Scenarios - The most extreme disruptive scenario is the emergence of an "All Knowing Assistant," where AI acts as a full agent for users, potentially bypassing existing platforms entirely [15].
AI重塑流量入口,大摩:“垂类网站”短期无忧、长期或被架空