中金 • 全球研究 | 欧洲：政策托底预期，但影响有待兑现——欧洲经济全景Q3 2025

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that while monetary and fiscal policies are expected to support the European economy, the actual impact is yet to be realized, with marginal weakening observed in Q3 data [3]. Economic Activity - The overall European economy is maintaining a slow recovery, with Eurozone GDP showing a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2 2025, slightly below Q1 but above market expectations [3]. - The manufacturing PMI showed a slight decline in September after a rapid recovery, while the services PMI remains at a high level [3]. - The Eurozone's economic surprise index has shown a notable weakening since mid-September, driven by disappointing retail sales and investment data [5][3]. Consumption - Consumer spending is steadily recovering, with actual retail growth (excluding automobiles) at 1.3% in August, slightly below pre-pandemic levels [7]. - Consumer confidence remains cautious, with high savings rates and limited willingness to spend, despite rising real wages and a recovering labor market [7]. - Factors supporting continued recovery in consumer demand include rising real wages, declining interest rates, and potential for further decreases in savings rates [7]. Investment - Investment data remains weak in Q2, influenced by tariffs, with only minor improvements in fixed capital investment outside of intellectual property [9]. - Some sectors, like construction, are seeing increased investment activity due to relaxed monetary policy, but investor confidence remains volatile [9]. - Future improvements in investment are anticipated as monetary policy transmission continues and tariff uncertainties diminish [9]. Industrial Production - Industrial production recovery is fragile, with Germany's industrial production index remaining low [11]. - Consumer goods production is relatively strong, while capital goods production growth is weak but shows a recovery trend [11]. - Overall industrial confidence remains weak, but capacity utilization is steadily recovering [11]. Labor Market - The Eurozone unemployment rate remains at historical lows, with wage growth rebounding in Q2 [14]. - Despite a slight weakening in the PMI employment index, real wages continue to rise above inflation levels [14]. Inflation - Headline inflation in the Eurozone is around 2%, with service inflation contributing significantly [17]. - Service inflation was recorded at 3.1% in August, indicating resilience despite downward pressures from tariffs and external competition [17]. - Future wage growth is expected to slow, potentially alleviating some inflationary pressures [17]. Monetary and Credit Conditions - The monetary policy easing cycle is pausing, with credit growth continuing to recover [21]. - The ECB has maintained the policy rate at a neutral level of 2%, with market expectations for minimal rate cuts in the coming year [21]. - Loan demand is recovering, particularly in the housing sector, although there are signs of tightening credit conditions for households [21]. Trade - Eurozone trade data shows a rise in imports and a decline in exports, with July data indicating a 0.1% year-on-year increase in exports and a 3.7% increase in imports [25]. - The decline in export growth is attributed to reduced "export grabbing" towards the U.S., with trade balances showing a significant drop since April [25]. Forward Outlook - The Eurozone economy is expected to see slow recovery in domestic demand, supported by the delayed effects of monetary easing and fiscal policies [27]. - Key areas to monitor include the EU's ability to implement substantial reforms and the extent of consumer recovery amidst high savings rates [27]. - The overall performance of European assets has been stagnant, with equities underperforming global indices since May [27].