中金：从“中国游”到“中国购”，口岸消费能否从中受益？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth of inbound tourism in China, driven by optimized entry policies and the rise of "China Shopping," which is expected to provide new growth momentum for the domestic consumption market [2][4]. Group 1: Inbound Tourism Growth - Inbound tourism has seen rapid growth due to continuous optimization of entry policies, with foreign visitor numbers increasing by 28% year-on-year as of 2Q25, recovering to 82% of pre-pandemic levels [4][10]. - The average spending of inbound travelers in China is estimated at 714 USD, with shopping accounting for over 20% of their total expenditure [19][21]. - The recovery of inbound tourism is uneven, with foreign visitors still on a steady upward trend, while overall inbound travel has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels [10][14]. Group 2: "China Shopping" Trends - The "China Shopping" trend is characterized by foreign tourists focusing on unique and competitively priced products, particularly luxury goods, domestic electronics, and traditional or trendy local products [4][28]. - The relaxation of tax refund policies in April 2025 has significantly stimulated shopping consumption, with tax refund sales increasing by 95% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [26][28]. - Inbound tourists prefer products that are either unique to China or have a price advantage, indicating a potential for growth in shopping consumption [28][29]. Group 3: Airport Consumption Insights - Airport consumption is expected to benefit slightly from the growth in "China Shopping," although the impact on performance is currently limited due to factors such as shopping time, store layout, and tax refund qualifications [5][30]. - Both duty-free and taxable commercial sectors at airports have the potential to benefit from increased inbound consumption, but current limitations may hinder effective engagement with foreign customers [30][32]. - The preference for fragrance products among Chinese travelers is significantly higher compared to travelers from other countries, indicating a unique consumption pattern [32].