招商电子·2025-10-16 15:47Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a sustained boom in AI computing power, with significant collaborations between major companies like Nvidia, AMD, and OpenAI, while domestic firms are accelerating their self-sufficiency processes amid increasing export controls from the US [2][15]. Demand Side - The demand for consumer electronics is recovering, driven by innovations in AI and automotive applications. Global smartphone shipments saw a year-on-year growth slowdown to 1% in Q2 2025, while PC shipments increased by 9.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025. The wearable market is also seeing new product launches, such as Meta's smart glasses [3]. - AI server shipments are projected to grow by 24.3% year-on-year, with overall server shipments expected to increase by about 5% for the year [3]. Inventory Side - The Days of Inventory (DOI) for the smartphone and PC supply chains have slightly increased, but overall inventory levels remain low among end customers [4]. Supply Side - Capacity utilization rates are recovering, with TSMC reporting strong demand for AI data centers. SMIC's capacity utilization reached 92.5% in Q2 2025, indicating a robust recovery in production [5]. - The expansion of advanced production lines in China is expected to accelerate by 2026, with significant capital expenditures focused on advanced processes [5]. Price Side - Prices for DRAM and NAND Flash memory have increased significantly, with a month-on-month rise of 10-40%. This price surge is attributed to the growing demand from AI servers [6]. Sales Side - Global semiconductor sales reached $64.9 billion in August 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.7%. The Americas and Asia-Pacific regions saw significant growth, with sales increasing by 25.5% and 43.1% respectively [6]. Industry Chain Tracking - The high demand for computing power continues to drive performance in sectors such as foundry, equipment, and materials, while storage and packaging sectors are showing signs of marginal recovery [6][12]. Specific Sector Insights - Processors: Nvidia and AMD are deepening their collaborations with OpenAI, with Nvidia planning to invest up to $100 billion [7]. - MCUs: The market is experiencing a mild recovery, although the effect of customers pulling inventory forward has weakened compared to the first half of the year [8]. - Storage: The performance of domestic storage companies is expected to improve, driven by rising prices and demand from AI servers [8]. - Analog Chips: The demand remains stable, with ongoing mergers and acquisitions among domestic companies [9]. - Power Semiconductors: Companies like Yangjie Technology are seeing continued profit growth, with significant capacity expansions planned [11]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI computing power and self-sufficiency as key investment themes, alongside sectors benefiting from ongoing price increases in storage [15][16].