免征购置税退坡在即，2025 年底汽车市场会如何变动

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming changes in China's vehicle purchase tax policy for new energy vehicles (NEVs) from 2026, highlighting the implications for consumers and manufacturers as the tax exemption will shift to a reduced rate, affecting market dynamics and purchasing decisions [4][10]. Policy Overview - The main policies related to vehicle purchases include: 1. Current exemption of vehicle purchase tax for NEVs, which will change to a 50% reduction in 2026 [6][8]. 2. National "trade-in" subsidy policy, requiring the scrapping of old vehicles to qualify for significant subsidies [6]. 3. Local government subsidies for vehicle replacement, which can be combined with manufacturer promotions [6][8]. 4. Various limited-time subsidies from local governments and manufacturers aimed at boosting car sales [6]. Tax Policy Changes - The vehicle purchase tax exemption for NEVs will be fully in effect from 2024 to 2025, with a maximum exemption of 30,000 yuan per vehicle. From 2026 to 2027, the tax will be halved, with a maximum reduction of 15,000 yuan [10][12]. - The tax structure indicates that vehicles priced below 339,000 yuan will incur a tax equivalent to 4.42% of the vehicle price starting in 2026, while those above this threshold will see a flat increase of 15,000 yuan in tax [16][12]. Market Impact Predictions - The anticipated increase in vehicle purchase costs due to tax changes is expected to lead to a decline in sales, particularly affecting lower-priced models more significantly than higher-priced ones [17][21]. - The article predicts that the last quarter of 2025 may see a surge in sales as consumers rush to purchase vehicles before the tax changes take effect, potentially leading to record monthly sales figures [21][23]. Sales Data and Trends - Historical sales data indicates a correlation between price changes and sales volume, suggesting that a 1% increase in vehicle price could lead to a 2.5% decrease in sales [20]. - The article provides detailed monthly sales projections for 2026, indicating a potential decline in sales volume due to the new tax policy, with expectations of a significant drop in January 2026 following the holiday season [23][24].