德银：AI的危险信号——ChatGPT的欧洲付费用户增长或已停滞！

Core Insights - ChatGPT's consumer spending in the European market has stagnated since May 2023, indicating a potential peak in paid user growth despite having 800 million weekly active users and only 20 million paid users, which is inconsistent with its $500 billion valuation [1][2][3] - The disparity between OpenAI's valuation and its actual revenue and user base highlights a significant gap between technological influence and commercial profitability in the AI industry [3][11] - The challenge lies not in the algorithms but in the business model, as the path to profitability remains unclear [4][5] User Growth and Market Performance - The monthly growth rate of consumer spending for ChatGPT in major European markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) has noticeably slowed since May 2023 [6][10] - Unlike previous years where seasonal slowdowns were observed, the performance in July and August 2025 has been lackluster, failing to replicate last year's growth momentum [8][10] - The data suggests that the current stagnation may not be merely seasonal, warranting close attention [10] Valuation Discrepancies - OpenAI's valuation of $500 billion is comparable to Netflix's market cap, yet OpenAI has only 20 million paid subscribers compared to Netflix's 300 million, with projected annual revenues of $45 billion for Netflix [11][12][13] - Spotify, valued at $144 billion, has 276 million subscribers and expected annual revenues exceeding $17 billion, further emphasizing the gap between OpenAI's valuation and its actual business scale [12][13] - The significant difference between OpenAI's user growth and its ability to convert traffic into sustained paid subscriptions poses a major commercialization challenge [13][14] Investor Sentiment - Investors are closely monitoring OpenAI's upcoming revenue disclosure cycle, as continued stagnation in paid user growth could lead to a reevaluation of the valuation framework within the AI industry [15]