如何解读本轮中美贸易摩擦升级︱重阳问答

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of China-U.S. trade tensions has significantly exceeded market expectations, leading to notable volatility in global capital markets [3][4]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - In contrast to the equal tariff period in early April, China now holds greater initiative in the trade conflict, utilizing its supply chain advantages in critical areas like rare earths as countermeasures [4]. - China's approach reflects a shift in both parties' demands, with China less affected by reciprocal tariffs and demonstrating strong supply capabilities, while the U.S. faces a weakening job market and a pressing need for agricultural agreements ahead of midterm elections [4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The baseline scenario suggests that both sides will ultimately reach an agreement, as the U.S. is the largest consumer and China the largest producer, making complete decoupling unlikely [5]. - The current trade tensions may lead to prolonged negotiations, with China potentially demanding higher concessions due to its newfound leverage [4][5]. - In the medium to long term, China's comprehensive national strength and the increasing competitiveness of its listed companies indicate significant growth potential in the market [5].