半导体芯闻·2025-10-17 10:20Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's ambitious goal of achieving a 70% self-sufficiency rate in semiconductor production by 2025, which is deemed unrealistic, with projections suggesting a self-sufficiency rate of only 14% by 2025 and around 30% by 2030. The impact of export restrictions on companies like Huawei is also highlighted, indicating a need for the Chinese government to adjust its targets based on current realities [1]. Logic: Ongoing Regulatory Challenges - Western countries have imposed restrictions on Huawei due to security concerns, particularly in the 5G sector, which has hindered China's ability to produce advanced semiconductors. The restrictions on ASML's EUV lithography equipment and TSMC's supply to Huawei have significantly impacted production capabilities [2]. - Despite these challenges, Huawei has managed to release 5G-compatible smartphones, indicating that it has found ways to utilize non-regulated equipment to achieve 7nm processes, prompting further regulatory actions from the U.S. government [2]. Advanced Semiconductor Design Capabilities - Chinese companies, including Huawei and Cambricon, possess advanced capabilities in designing cutting-edge SoCs, but they currently lack the manufacturing technology to produce these systems. The potential for China to develop its own EUV lithography equipment exists, but it may take a decade or more to realize [3]. Other Semiconductors: Power Semiconductors as a Key Area - The article identifies power semiconductors, including analog and discrete devices, as a growing segment where China could significantly increase its market share and potentially disrupt the global market [4]. - In 2023, despite a downturn in the semiconductor industry, equipment shipments to mainland China increased significantly, indicating a strategic response to export restrictions. By 2024, shipments to China are expected to continue growing, capturing about half of the global market share [6]. Electric Vehicle Market Influence - The demand for power semiconductors, particularly discrete devices, is rapidly increasing due to the growth of the electric vehicle market in China. This trend suggests that China will inevitably strengthen its manufacturing capabilities in this critical area [6]. - The article draws parallels between the rapid decline in lithium-ion battery prices and the potential for similar price reductions in the power semiconductor market, suggesting that Chinese manufacturers could emerge as significant players [7].