换帅难挽颓势！东莞农商行：从珠三角样本到风险样本

Core Viewpoint - Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank is facing unprecedented challenges, with declining profitability and deteriorating asset quality, reflecting both macroeconomic pressures and internal shortcomings in business transformation and risk management [3][21]. Financial Performance - The bank's revenue growth has sharply declined from 26.3% in 2019 to 2.1% in 2022, and has turned negative since the new chairman took office, with revenue decreasing by 12.5% in 2023 and 13.6% in 2024 [6][7]. - For the first half of 2025, the bank reported revenue of 5.5 billion yuan, a 14% decrease year-on-year, and net profit of 2.6 billion yuan, down 22% [7][8]. Interest Income and Net Interest Margin - The bank's net interest income fell by 13.2% to 9.17 billion yuan in 2024, continuing to decline by 10% to 4.24 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [10]. - The net interest margin decreased from 2.24% in 2020 to 1.35% in 2024, and further to 1.22% in the first half of 2025, placing it among the lowest in comparison to peers [10][13]. Non-Interest Income - Although non-interest income grew in 2024, it was primarily driven by bond trading gains, while fee and commission income dropped by 35.9% [13]. - In the first half of 2025, fee and commission income continued to decline by 16.8%, indicating a structural issue in the bank's income sources [13]. Asset Quality - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio has increased for four consecutive years, rising from 0.82% in 2020 to 1.84% in 2024, and further to 1.87% in the first half of 2025 [14]. - The balance of non-performing loans surged from 2.87 billion yuan at the end of 2022 to 6.978 billion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting a significant increase in credit risk [15]. Loan Structure and Regional Concentration - The bank's loan structure has shown an imbalance, with corporate loans increasing to 59% of total loans by the end of 2024, while retail loans remained stagnant [18]. - A significant 82% of the bank's loans are concentrated in the Dongguan region, making it vulnerable to local economic fluctuations [20]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to continue facing operational pressures due to an unstable economic recovery and a low interest rate environment, necessitating a balance between risk management and business development [21].