【广发宏观吴棋滢】如何看9月财政数据及5000亿结存限额的增量政策

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the gradual recovery of fiscal revenue in the first three quarters, with a notable increase in tax revenue driven by emerging industries and a vibrant capital market, while non-tax revenue shows a decline in growth dependence [1][5][12]. Fiscal Revenue - Fiscal revenue increased sequentially, with a year-on-year decline of 1.1% in Q1, a growth of 0.6% in Q2, and a growth of 2.5% in Q3 [1][5]. - Tax revenue showed steady growth, while non-tax revenue growth has receded, indicating a reduced reliance on non-tax income [1][5]. - Key contributors to revenue growth include strong performance in emerging industries, high-end manufacturing, and a buoyant capital market leading to increased personal and corporate income taxes [1][5][6]. Fiscal Expenditure - Public fiscal expenditure in September grew by 3.1% year-on-year, up from 0.8% in the previous month [2][14]. - The expenditure structure shows significant increases in social security and employment spending (10%), environmental spending (8.8%), and technology spending (6.5%) [2][14]. - Infrastructure-related spending has been lower, particularly in agriculture, community affairs, and transportation, but is expected to rebound in Q4 due to new policy financial tools [2][14]. Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, but showed a recovery of 5.6% in September [3][19]. - The expenditure from bond funds has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 23.9%, indicating strong support for fiscal spending [3][19]. Central Government Support - The central government allocated an additional 500 billion yuan to local governments, reflecting a proactive adjustment in fiscal policy amid slowing infrastructure growth [4][21]. - This allocation aims to support local governments in managing existing debts and funding eligible projects, indicating a focus on infrastructure investment recovery in Q4 [4][21].