摩根大通：为AI供电的“终极方案”？详解SMR（小型模块化核反应堆技术）

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley identifies Small Modular Reactors (SMR) as a key solution to meet the surging electricity demand from AI and data centers, highlighting their advantages in compact design and modular deployment [1][3]. SMR Technology Advantages and Market Positioning - SMR redefines nuclear energy applications through five core features: small design for flexible deployment, modular construction to reduce costs, capability for both grid-connected and off-grid installations, a fuel cycle lasting up to 30 years, and built-in passive cooling mechanisms [4][5]. - The primary developers of SMR are concentrated in the US, Canada, and Europe, with water-cooled reactors currently dominating the market [5]. - SMR's unique value lies in meeting diverse energy needs, including high-temperature gas-cooled reactors suitable for hydrogen production and industrial applications [5]. Main Technical Routes and Development Progress - SMR technology is categorized into five concepts based on coolant type: water-cooled, molten salt, gas-cooled, heat pipe, and metal-cooled [6][9]. - The light water reactor (LWR) is the most mature technology, with NuScale's designs being the only ones to receive standard design approval from the NRC [6][19]. - Kairos Power has obtained construction permits for its fourth-generation SMR, aiming for operational status by 2027 [20]. Regulatory Environment and Deployment Timeline - The regulatory process for US nuclear plants involves multiple stages of approval from the NRC, with recent reforms aimed at expediting this process [18]. - The Trump administration's regulatory reforms have significantly accelerated the approval timeline, with a target of 18 months for review [18]. Market Opportunities from Data Center Electricity Demand - Major cloud service providers like Amazon and Google are expected to support SMR projects to meet their clean energy needs, with Google already partnering with Kairos Power [22]. - The Department of Energy has included sodium-cooled fast reactors, high-temperature reactors, and molten salt reactors in its 2030 deployment watch list [22]. Commercialization Challenges - The competitive landscape due to multiple technical routes may hinder any single technology from reaching commercial scale [23]. - Supply chain readiness is uneven, with limited availability of HALEU fuel posing significant challenges for advanced SMR concepts [23]. - Economic feasibility remains to be validated, as initial costs and economies of scale are critical tests for SMR projects [23].