全球贸易格局重构｜国际

Global Trade Current Characteristics - Global trade has reached a historical high, with total goods and services trade expected to reach $33 trillion in 2024, driven primarily by service trade. China's total import and export volume is projected to reach 43.85 trillion RMB in 2024, marking a 5% year-on-year increase and setting a new record [3]. Trade Protectionism and Supply Chain Restructuring - Trade protectionism is on the rise, particularly among Western countries led by the United States, which are implementing policies to reverse trade deficits and protect domestic industries. These actions are increasing global production costs and threatening the stability of global supply chains [5]. - The global supply chain is showing clear signs of "regionalization" and "politicization," with major economies accelerating the restructuring of industrial chains through policy interventions. The U.S. is promoting "nearshoring" and "friend-shoring," while Europe is focusing on green transformation and digital development [5]. Multilateral Mechanism Reconstruction and Regional Cooperation - The traditional multilateral governance framework, dominated by institutions like the WTO and IMF, is increasingly failing due to destructive actions from the U.S. Regional trade agreements are becoming key tools for reshaping the global economic landscape, with frameworks like CPTPP, RCEP, and USMCA enhancing regional cooperation [5]. Emerging Market Role Transformation - Emerging economies, particularly large economies within the G20 such as China, India, Brazil, Russia, and Mexico, have transitioned from being "passive participants" to "active influencers" in global trade. Their deep integration into the global economy has significantly enhanced their economic spillover effects, making them core drivers of global trade growth [6]. Future Development Trends in Global Trade - Trade protectionism will persist but face more counterbalances, as emerging economies gain more influence and international organizations push for trade liberalization. The U.S. may continue to implement tariffs under various pretexts, but the collective opposition from emerging markets will increase [9]. - The trend of regionalization in global trade will strengthen, with regional trade agreements playing a crucial role in optimizing supply chain layouts. This shift will prioritize security and resilience over mere efficiency, potentially leading to fragmented global supply chains and increased operational costs for multinational companies [9]. - There will be a deep adjustment in trade structures, with an increasing share of service trade and high-value goods. Digital services and green technology products are expected to become new engines of trade growth, while the U.S. maintains its trade advantages in high-tech sectors, albeit facing challenges from other countries' rising innovation capabilities [10].