王胜：明年行情更“灿烂”，中国资产最后全部都会被重估

Core Viewpoint - The capital market in China is expected to experience a more optimistic phase by 2026, with investor confidence translating into action despite external uncertainties [3][9]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The fourth quarter of each year often reflects a condensed expectation for the following year, suggesting that a positive outlook for 2026 will likely result in a favorable market in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5][6]. - The current yield on equities is slightly higher than that of bonds, but this is still considered insufficient for long-term growth [6][9]. - A long-term understanding of the global competitive landscape is crucial for maintaining confidence in investments [6][10]. - The downward trend of the US dollar is anticipated to lead to a systematic increase in global risk assets [6][12]. - The rise in pricing power of leading domestic companies reflects a broader restructuring of global economic order [6][16]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - There is a growing importance of gold as an asset allocation choice amid the restructuring of monetary order, despite its recent price increases [6][15]. - The focus should shift from quantity (GDP) to price factors, as improvements in pricing power can enhance corporate profitability [16][19]. - The increase in China's manufacturing value-added share indicates a potential for price increases in Chinese goods, similar to historical trends in the US [17][18]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector, particularly artificial intelligence, is expected to see significant developments by 2026, with potential for valuation reappraisal across various industries [22][23]. - High dividend yields remain attractive, but they may not outperform high-growth technology assets in the long run [24][25]. - The long-term prospects for high ROE Chinese consumer brands remain positive, with potential for revaluation in the market [24][25]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The capital market's depth and inclusivity have significantly improved, particularly in the Hong Kong market, which is becoming a key focus for institutional investors [22]. - The liquidity environment is expected to support the equity market, with a shift in asset allocation away from real estate towards equities [21][22]. - Confidence in private enterprises is growing, supported by favorable policies and structural tools aimed at enhancing their role in technological innovation [20].