申万宏观·周度研究成果（10.11-10.17）

Group 1 - The article discusses the rising uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations, highlighting recent developments and their implications for global markets [5][9]. - It emphasizes the strong performance of exports in September, attributing this to a combination of low base effects and improved external demand [11]. - The article notes a decline in industrial production and infrastructure investment, while mobility indicators show a continued high level of movement among the population [12]. Group 2 - The analysis of inflation reveals three key drivers: rising prices of commodities boosting upstream PPI, and increases in gold and appliance prices significantly impacting downstream CPI [13]. - The article points out that the surge in M1 growth may be partially due to accelerated fiscal spending [15]. - It provides insights into the potential future direction of U.S. tariff policies from an American perspective, offering a structured framework for understanding these developments [6][10].