国泰海通｜策略：聚焦高水平对外开放与科技自主可控

Core Insights - Post-October holiday, trading heat for hot themes has cooled down, while regional economy, dividends, and domestic consumption themes have strengthened [1] - The average daily trading volume for hot themes was 969 million yuan, with an average turnover rate of 3.6%, showing a significant decline compared to pre-holiday levels [1] - The market is currently under pressure from external shocks, leading to a rotation away from technology themes towards low-position cyclical, consumption, and dividend themes [1] Theme 1: Hainan Free Trade Zone - The Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start full island closure operations on December 18, 2025, with innovative policies implemented [2] - Key sectors include tourism, modern services, high-tech industries, and tropical agriculture, focusing on duty-free shopping, healthcare, and education [2] - Recommended sectors benefiting from Hainan's free trade port include tourism, exhibition, transportation, and financial services [2] Theme 2: Self-Control - Investment in China's advanced semiconductor manufacturing continues to increase, with a projected global expenditure of $374 billion on 300mm wafer fab equipment from 2026 to 2028 [3] - China is expected to lead global spending on 300mm equipment, with a total investment of $94 billion during the same period [3] - Recommended sectors include domestic computing power and AIDC benefiting from capital expenditure and localization [3] Theme 3: Robotics - Tesla plans to launch its third-generation humanoid robot by the end of 2025, with mass production starting in 2026, aiming for an annual output of 1 million units by 2030 [4] - Domestic companies are accelerating capital operations and financing processes to support industry-scale development [4] - Recommended sectors include core components like sensors and actuators, as well as manufacturers capable of large-scale production [4] Theme 4: AI Applications - High-quality video generation applications and large models are becoming key entry points for AI applications [5] - OpenAI's new Apps SDK aims to integrate ChatGPT into various applications, while its video generation app Sora quickly rose to the top of the App Store [5] - The government aims for over 70% penetration of new intelligent terminals and agents by 2027, and over 90% by 2030, indicating a large-scale demonstration application phase for AI in China [5]