国泰海通证券研究·2025-10-19 10:43Core Insights - The article emphasizes the ongoing developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown, the response to the banking crisis, and the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, suggesting that if market risk aversion eases, precious metal prices may experience wide fluctuations [1][2]. Precious Metals - Market risk aversion is fluctuating, leading to expectations of short-term wide price swings for gold. Comex gold prices reached $4,392 per ounce and Shanghai gold prices hit 1,001 yuan per gram during the week [2]. - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated rising risks in the employment market and potential cessation of balance sheet reduction in the coming months. The banking sector is facing renewed challenges, which has heightened market risk aversion [2]. - Long-term, despite existing federal debt risks and challenges to the dollar's status, gold may continue to perform well amid a restructuring of the global monetary system [2]. Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices are under pressure due to declining market risk appetite, but upcoming domestic meetings and renewed U.S.-China trade negotiations may improve macroeconomic sentiment [3]. - Supply-side disruptions, particularly in mining, and historically low inventory levels are expected to provide upward support for industrial metal prices [3]. - Despite insufficient demand during the peak season, the overall supply situation remains tight, suggesting potential for price increases in the medium to long term [3].