2025年这场白银逼空大戏：印度大V，中国假期与伦敦挤兑

Core Viewpoint - The global silver market is experiencing a severe crisis, the worst since the Hunt brothers' manipulation in 1980, driven by a perfect storm of factors including retail investor frenzy in India, supply disruptions due to holidays in China, and depleted London gold inventories [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices reached a historical high of $54 per ounce before plummeting by 6.7%, indicating extreme market pressure [2]. - The largest precious metal refinery in India has exhausted its inventory, with its trading head stating that such a chaotic market has not been seen in 27 years [3]. - Major banks like JPMorgan have temporarily halted silver supplies to India, with deliveries not expected until November [4]. Group 2: Retail Investor Behavior - Ahead of the Diwali festival, Indian social media influencer Sarthak Ahuja sparked a retail buying frenzy by claiming silver was undervalued compared to gold, leading to unprecedented demand [7][8]. - The silver premium surged to over $5 per ounce, significantly higher than the usual few cents, as buyers prioritized supply over price in the Mumbai gold market [9]. - Fund companies were forced to suspend new subscriptions for silver funds due to the overwhelming demand [10]. Group 3: Supply Chain Issues - The London market faced a liquidity crisis, with available inventories dropping below 150 million ounces, while daily trading volumes were around 250 million ounces [12]. - The borrowing costs for silver skyrocketed, with annualized overnight borrowing rates reaching 200%, causing banks to withdraw from quoting [12]. - Comex inventories in New York saw a reduction of over 20 million ounces in two weeks, marking the largest decline in 25 years [14]. Group 4: Structural Imbalances - The crisis is attributed to a long-term structural imbalance in the silver market, with demand consistently outpacing supply by 678 million ounces over the past five years, largely driven by the booming photovoltaic industry [18]. - Concerns over potential tariffs from the Trump administration led traders to preemptively move over 200 million ounces of silver into New York warehouses [19]. - Global ETFs absorbed over 100 million ounces of silver in the first nine months of the year, contributing to the depletion of London reserves [20]. Group 5: Analyst Insights - Analysts have warned about the impending liquidity crisis in the London market for over a year, with predictions of a peak in the market pressure [21]. - As silver begins to flow into the market from various sources, further price pressures are anticipated due to complex logistics and potential customs delays [23].