速递｜司美格鲁肽专利悬崖将至，万亿赛道即将迎来混战

Core Insights - The clinical application of Semaglutide has expanded to multiple treatment areas including diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular diseases, kidney diseases, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, autoimmune diseases, and Alzheimer's, showcasing significant market potential [2] - The expiration of Novo Nordisk's core patent for Semaglutide on March 20, 2026, is expected to lead to strong competition from generic drugs, prompting companies to build competitive advantages [2] Market Potential - Semaglutide achieved sales of $16.6 billion in the first half of 2025, ranking first among global pharmaceuticals, followed closely by Tirzepatide at $14.734 billion [5] - Global sales of GLP-1RA drugs are projected to exceed $150 billion by 2031, driven by a large patient base, with 589 million adults expected to have diabetes by 2024 and 1.13 billion projected to be obese by 2030 [5] - In China, the overweight rate among adults has surpassed 50%, potentially rising to 70.5% by 2030 if not controlled, indicating a significant market opportunity for weight management drugs [5] Competitive Landscape - The global clinical pipeline for GLP-1RA drugs has reached 283 projects, with over 360 in Phase III trials, indicating a highly competitive environment [6] - The development of GLP-1RA drugs is evolving from single-target to dual and multi-target mechanisms, with a shift from injectable to oral formulations and extended dosing intervals [6] Domestic Market Dynamics - Over 100 companies are reportedly engaged in the development of Semaglutide generics and GLP-1RA innovative drugs in China, with 8 companies having submitted applications for market approval [7] - The competition is intensifying as nearly 30 companies have had their clinical applications accepted, indicating a rapidly growing domestic market [7]