海外高频 | 海外无风险利率悉数下行，黄金大涨续创新高 （申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in major asset classes, highlighting the decline in overseas risk-free interest rates and the significant rise in gold prices, alongside the performance of various stock indices and the implications of political events in the US and Japan [2][4][77]. Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data - Overseas risk-free interest rates have uniformly declined, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling by 3 basis points to 4.02%. The S&P 500 rose by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq increased by 2.1%. The dollar index decreased by 0.3% to 98.6, while offshore RMB strengthened to 7.13. WTI crude oil dropped by 2.3% to $57.5 per barrel, and COMEX gold surged by 6.2% to $4,234.9 per ounce [2][4][77]. - In developed markets, stock indices showed mixed results, with the French CAC40, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 rising by 3.2%, 2.1%, and 1.7% respectively, while the Hang Seng Index, German DAX, and Nikkei 225 fell by 4.0%, 1.7%, and 1.1% respectively. Emerging markets generally saw gains, with the Korean Composite Index, Brazilian IBOVESPA, and Indian SENSEX30 rising by 3.8%, 1.9%, and 1.9% respectively [4][10]. - The US government shutdown has entered its third week, with expectations that it may last over 30 days. The Polymarket predicts a shutdown duration of over 30 days, while the Kalshi market estimates it could last up to 42 days [55][56]. - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is seeking a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party after the Komeito party withdrew from their long-standing alliance. The new LDP president, Sanae Takaichi, is negotiating for majority support [50]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the balance sheet reduction (QT) may end in the coming months, citing tightening liquidity conditions. He noted that the economic outlook has not changed significantly since the September meeting [62][77]. Commodity Prices - The article notes that commodity prices have mostly declined, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude both down by 2.3%. However, coal prices increased by 1.6%, while rebar prices fell by 2.1% [35][41]. - Precious metals saw a significant increase, with COMEX gold rising by 6.2% and COMEX silver increasing by 6.3%. In contrast, base metals like LME copper and aluminum experienced declines of 1.9% and 0.4% respectively [41][36].