热点思考 | AI资本开支：美国经济的“支柱”？——“无尽前沿”系列之二（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in AI capital expenditure in the U.S. over the past few years, which has strongly supported the U.S. capital markets and economic growth. It questions whether the current AI investment boom signals a "bubble" and how long the capital expenditure expansion cycle can continue [2][7]. Group 1: AI Capital Expenditure as a Pillar of the U.S. Economy - Micro perspective: In Q2 2025, capital expenditure by the top seven U.S. tech companies (Mag 7) is expected to approach $100 billion, doubling from three years ago, with a year-on-year growth rate of 64.8%. The public's interest in AI technology and investment has surged dramatically [2][8]. - Mid-level perspective: AI-related investments in the U.S. have significantly outpaced other sectors, becoming a key driver of the U.S. stock market. From Q4 2022 to Q2 2025, U.S. computer equipment investment grew by 61%, far exceeding other investments, with Mag 7's capital expenditure accounting for about 30% of the S&P 500 [11][12]. - Macro perspective: In the first half of 2025, AI investment is expected to contribute 1.0 percentage points to economic growth, nearly matching the contribution from consumer spending. However, the negative impact of imports on net investment cannot be overlooked [3][22]. Group 2: Impact of AI on Productivity - The AI revolution has shown some positive effects on productivity, but there is still significant room for improvement. The labor productivity growth rate in the U.S. has increased compared to pre-pandemic levels, but the probability of remaining in a "low growth" phase is still high at 85% as of Q2 2025 [4][26]. - Historical comparisons indicate that the current investment, productivity, and cost performance in the AI revolution lag behind the internet revolution, suggesting that the AI revolution is still in its early stages [4][46]. Group 3: Outlook for AI Capital Expenditure - Concerns about whether the current AI investment boom is a "bubble" are addressed. Unlike the internet bubble, the current rise in market capitalization among leading tech companies is supported by profits, with financial metrics such as cash-to-market value and return on equity (ROE) being stronger than during the internet bubble [5][55]. - Potential headwinds for future AI capital expenditure include declining free cash flow, pressure on profits, and rising electricity demand leading to potential power bottlenecks [60][61]. - Despite these challenges, the macroeconomic environment remains favorable for AI capital expenditure, with expectations of continued support from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a potential economic recovery [69].