Datayes·2025-10-19 14:12Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the Chinese market amidst ongoing US-China tensions, highlighting the cautious stance of major investment banks regarding market recovery and the importance of focusing on high-quality stocks with stable dividends before any clear resolution of uncertainties [1][2]. Economic Growth Targets - Morgan Stanley predicts that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will likely set a specific growth target below 5%, but not lower than 4.5%. In contrast, Nomura, HSBC, and UBS do not expect a specific numerical target, suggesting a range or implicit goals instead [2]. Consumer Support Measures - Morgan Stanley believes that the support for consumption will be relatively limited, with China primarily relying on employment promotion to bolster consumption. Other banks emphasize improving the social security system to stimulate consumption, with UBS suggesting the government may set a clear target for the official consumption-to-GDP ratio [3]. Service Industry Development - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will continue to emphasize maintaining a stable manufacturing sector, potentially limiting service industry growth. UBS expects further opening of the service sector to foreign investment, particularly in telecommunications, healthcare, and education, while HSBC mentions expanding service consumption and lowering barriers for foreign investment [4]. "Anti-Overwork" Policies - Morgan Stanley does not expect explicit mention of "anti-overwork" policies in the "14th Five-Year Plan," viewing it as an inherent part of building a unified national market. UBS believes the new plan may clarify some strategic goals and core principles of the "anti-overwork" initiative, while Nomura and HSBC do not specifically address the relationship between this policy and the plan [5]. Real Estate Sector - Nomura indicates that Beijing may intensify efforts to clean up the debt issues in the real estate market. HSBC notes that the new urbanization plan will focus on coordinated urban-rural development, urban cluster construction, and the promotion of affordable housing. Morgan Stanley believes the plan will emphasize high-quality urban development and establish a new development model for the real estate market, aiming to stabilize housing price expectations, accelerate inventory reduction, and expand rental housing supply [6]. Technology and Innovation - All four investment banks agree that innovation and technology development are priorities. Nomura points out that Beijing will continue to drive technological self-reliance through significant investments and industrial policies, especially in semiconductors and artificial intelligence. HSBC emphasizes breakthroughs in foundational technology areas, while Morgan Stanley aims for industrial modernization and efficiency improvements, focusing on overcoming "bottleneck" technologies. UBS expects continued support for basic and cutting-edge research, particularly in "bottleneck" technology fields [7]. Market Strategy Insights - Various securities firms provide insights into market strategies, suggesting a focus on high-quality stocks and sectors with stable earnings. They recommend attention to sectors like new energy, advanced manufacturing, and consumer goods, while also highlighting the importance of mergers and acquisitions as a theme [8]. Lithium Prices - As of October 17, the average price of domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate is reported at 79,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 13.67% increase. Export prices have also risen to 86,000 yuan per ton, marking a 14.67% increase [9][10]. Coal Prices - As of October 17, the market price for Shanxi-produced thermal coal (Q5500) is 740 yuan per ton, up 34 yuan from the previous week. The price for Indonesian coal at Guangzhou port is 759.93 yuan per ton, and Australian coal is priced at 799.27 yuan per ton, with respective increases of 22.30 yuan and 36.75 yuan [10]. IPO Developments - Jiangsu Tianbing Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. has completed its IPO counseling filing with the Jiangsu Securities Regulatory Bureau, indicating ongoing activity in the aerospace sector [11]. Metering Equipment - The State Grid has announced a tender for 16.95 million new energy meters for 2025, marking a shift to new metering technology that is expected to enhance profit margins in the metering equipment sector [12][13]. Domestic Substitution Trends - Recent reports indicate significant shifts in the supply chain dynamics of major tech companies, with Nvidia's CEO stating that the company's market share in China has dropped from 95% to 0% due to US export controls. Microsoft is also pushing suppliers to move production outside of China, indicating a broader trend of domestic substitution [17][20].