【石油化工】坚定看好“三桶油”油价韧性，静待天然气消费旺季来临——行业周报第424期（1013—1019）（赵乃迪/蔡嘉豪等）
光大证券研究·2025-10-19 23:04

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical easing and supply-demand concerns on oil prices, highlighting a downward trend in oil prices and a revision of global oil demand forecasts by the IEA [4]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends and Demand Forecasts - Oil prices have continued to decline, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $61.34 and $57.25 per barrel respectively, down 1.2% and 1.7% from the previous week [4]. - The IEA has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 down by 40,000 barrels per day to a total increase of 700,000 barrels per day [4]. - On the supply side, the IEA expects global oil supply to increase by 3 million barrels per day in 2025, with OPEC+ contributing 1.4 million barrels per day and non-OPEC+ contributing 1.6 million barrels per day [4]. Group 2: Performance of Major Oil Companies - In the first half of 2025, the net profit of China's three major oil companies (PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC) showed resilience, with declines of 5.2%, 39.8%, and 12.8% respectively, indicating better performance compared to international peers [5]. - The five major international oil and gas companies reported net profit declines of 15.3% to 39.7%, with BP's base reset cost profit down by 31.8% [5]. - The three major oil companies are expected to enhance their production and reserves, with planned production increases of 1.6%, 1.5%, and 5.9% for PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC respectively in 2025 [5]. Group 3: Natural Gas Market Outlook - The article anticipates a cold winter in 2025, which may lead to a recovery in natural gas consumption, as demand has shown improvement since Q2 2025 [6]. - Natural gas sales for the three major oil companies increased by 3.2% in the first half of 2025, outpacing domestic demand growth [7]. - The market-oriented reforms in the natural gas sector are expected to enhance pricing flexibility and profitability for the three major oil companies, particularly during the heating season [7].