光大证券研究·2025-10-19 23:04Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to continue rising due to strong demand recovery and tight supply conditions in the market [4][5]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate is driven by a significant recovery in demand from downstream electrolyte and battery manufacturers, while upstream producers have not expanded capacity significantly during the industry's low period [4]. - As of October 17, 2025, the operating rate of lithium hexafluorophosphate production is 75.43%, indicating that most manufacturers are operating at full capacity, leading to a lack of effective supply increase in the short term [4]. - Industry inventory levels have nearly bottomed out, with only 1,340 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate in stock as of October 17, 2025, contributing to a tight supply-demand balance [4]. Group 2: Price Trends - Since mid-September, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has broken out of a long-standing horizontal trend and has entered a rapid upward trajectory, with the average market price reaching 75,000 yuan/ton as of October 17, 2025, reflecting a 16.3% increase from the previous week and a 20.0% increase since the beginning of the year [4]. Group 3: Industry Capacity and Profitability - As of October 17, 2025, China's lithium hexafluorophosphate industry has a total capacity of 442,900 tons per year, with effective capacity at 389,400 tons per year, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.7% [5]. - Major producers include Tianqi Lithium, Molybdenum, Tianji, and Shida Shenghua, with Tianqi Lithium having a capacity of approximately 110,000 tons per year [5]. - The industry is expected to add capacities of 304,000 tons, 518,300 tons, and 153,000 tons in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, which will benefit leading companies as prices rise and capacity utilization improves [5]. Group 4: Downstream Demand Growth - The lithium-ion battery materials industry is experiencing stable growth in demand, particularly in the fields of new energy vehicles and energy storage [6][7]. - From January to August, the cumulative bidding scale for domestic energy storage reached 211.11 GWh, with new energy storage installations in the first half of 2025 growing by 69.4% year-on-year [7]. - In the first half of 2025, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [7].