海外高频 | 海外无风险利率悉数下行，黄金大涨续创新高 （申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in major asset classes, highlighting the decline in overseas risk-free interest rates and the significant rise in gold prices, alongside the performance of various stock indices and the implications of political events in the U.S. and Japan [2][4][77]. Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data - Overseas risk-free interest rates have uniformly declined, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling by 3 basis points to 4.02%. The S&P 500 rose by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq increased by 2.1%. The dollar index decreased by 0.3% to 98.6, while offshore RMB strengthened to 7.13. WTI crude oil dropped by 2.3% to $57.5 per barrel, and COMEX gold surged by 6.2% to $4,234.9 per ounce [2][4][77]. - In developed markets, stock indices showed mixed results, with the French CAC40, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 rising by 3.2%, 2.1%, and 1.7%, respectively. Conversely, the Hang Seng Index, German DAX, and Nikkei 225 fell by 4.0%, 1.7%, and 1.1% [4]. - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, with expectations that it may last over 30 days. The Polymarket predicts a shutdown duration of over 30 days, while the Kalshi market estimates it could last up to 42 days [55][56]. - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is seeking a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party after the Komeito party withdrew from their long-standing alliance. The new LDP president, Sanae Takaichi, is negotiating for majority support [50]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the balance sheet reduction (QT) may end in the coming months, as liquidity indicators show signs of tightening. He noted that the economic situation has not changed significantly since the September meeting [62][77]. Sector Performance - In the U.S., all sectors of the S&P 500 saw gains, with communication services, real estate, information technology, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary rising by 3.6%, 3.4%, 2.1%, 2.0%, and 1.9%, respectively. The financial sector remained flat due to regional bank turmoil [10]. - In the Eurozone, most sectors also experienced increases, with consumer staples, technology, and consumer discretionary rising by 7.1%, 4.1%, and 3.7%, while financials and industrials fell by 2.1% and 1.0% [10]. - The Hang Seng Index saw a decline across most sectors, with the Hang Seng Tech Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropping by 8.0%, 4.0%, and 3.7%, respectively. The information technology, healthcare, and consumer discretionary sectors fell by 8.2%, 6.9%, and 5.7% [14]. Currency and Commodity Trends - The dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.56, with most currencies appreciating against the dollar. The euro, British pound, and Japanese yen rose by 0.2%, 0.5%, and 0.4%, respectively. Emerging market currencies also saw appreciation, with the Mexican peso rising by 1.2% and the Brazilian real by 2.2% [25][32]. - Commodity prices mostly declined, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude both down by 2.3%. However, coal prices increased by 1.6% to 1,179 yuan per ton, while rebar prices fell by 2.1% to 3,037 yuan per ton [35][41]. - Precious metals saw a significant increase, with COMEX gold rising by 6.2% to $4,234.9 per ounce and COMEX silver increasing by 6.3% to $50.4 per ounce [41].