Wind万得·2025-10-19 22:35Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the impact of recent U.S. tariffs on China, indicating that while there may be short-term disruptions in global assets, the medium-term trend of asset revaluation in China remains unaffected [1][6]. Credit Market - In September, M2 growth was 8.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from August, while M1 increased by 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from August, indicating a narrowing gap between M1 and M2 [3]. - New RMB loans in September were 1.29 trillion yuan, below the market expectation of 1.46 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of approximately 300 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [3]. Equity Market - Traditional manufacturing in China is poised to gain global pricing power due to a shift in capital expenditure structures and a slowdown in domestic capital spending [5]. - High-dividend blue-chip stocks and high-growth stocks are highlighted as key investment opportunities for the fourth quarter, with a focus on sectors like banking and utilities for stable returns, and new energy and AI for long-term growth potential [7]. Industry Research - The rebound in inbound tourism in China is expected to significantly boost the tourism sector, with total inbound tourism revenue projected to grow from $94 billion in 2024 to $525 billion by 2034 [11]. - The coal industry is anticipated to rebound in the fourth quarter due to supply constraints and increased demand, with expectations of higher coal prices supported by improved supply-demand dynamics [12]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is identified as a strong performer, driven by global political factors and trade disruptions, presenting investment opportunities in related resource sectors [13]. Macro and Fixed Income - The bond market is entering a recovery phase, with increased attractiveness for low-risk assets amid a declining risk appetite in the market [18]. - The bond market is expected to perform well in the fourth quarter, supported by a weak domestic demand environment and potential monetary policy easing [19]. - Interest rates are projected to remain low and volatile, influenced by economic recovery dynamics and the real estate market's stabilization [20]. Asset Allocation - The stock market is viewed positively in the long term, but caution is advised in the short term, with a focus on undervalued sectors and credit bonds offering yield spread opportunities [22].