Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that short-term trade conflicts are suppressing copper prices, but there is a positive outlook for copper price increases in the future due to supply constraints and recovering demand [4]. Macroeconomic Factors - Recent changes in Sino-US trade relations may lead to significant fluctuations in copper prices [4]. Supply and Demand - Freeport is reducing copper production for 2025-2026, maintaining supply tightness. Demand from downstream sectors like air conditioning is expected to improve in Q4, which may support copper price increases [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 6.7%, while LME copper inventory decreased by 1.5% [5]. - As of October 17, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 681,000 tons, up 3.1% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 589,000 tons, up 4.9% from September 30, 2025 [5]. Supply Metrics - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 840 yuan/ton this week [6]. - China's copper concentrate production in July 2025 was 138,000 tons, down 6.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year [6]. Smelting Data - The TC (treatment charge) was -40.8 USD/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [7]. - China's electrolytic copper production in September 2025 was 1.121 million tons, down 4.3% month-on-month but up 11.6% year-on-year [7]. Demand Insights - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw an increase in operating rates by 3.4 percentage points [9]. - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to improve compared to previous estimates [9]. Futures Market - As of October 17, 2025, the open interest for SHFE copper contracts increased by 6.8% week-on-week, indicating a strong market position [10].
【有色】本周全球三大交易所电解铜库存创近5年同期新高 ——铜行业周报（20251013-20251017）（王招华/方驭涛）
光大证券研究·2025-10-19 23:04