中金 | 三季报预览：哪些公司业绩有望超预期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming peak period for the disclosure of Q3 earnings reports for A-share listed companies, highlighting a potential marginal slowdown in domestic growth momentum and the focus on fundamentals amid market fluctuations [2][3]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Q3 earnings growth for A-shares is expected to improve compared to Q2, with a projected year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% for overall A-shares and 8.2% for non-financial sectors [3][6]. - Retail sales growth has shown a marginal slowdown, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6% from January to August, down from 5.0% in the first half of the year [3][4]. - The CPI has seen a year-on-year decline of 0.23%, while the PPI has improved slightly with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - Non-bank financial sectors are expected to benefit from high market activity, while gold and technology hardware sectors are anticipated to be structural highlights [4][5]. - The energy and materials sector, particularly the non-ferrous metals segment, is expected to perform well due to rising demand and prices, with gold prices reaching new highs [5][6]. - The consumer sector is facing challenges, with mandatory consumption showing weak demand, while new consumption areas like beauty and trendy products are performing relatively well [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The article suggests focusing on sectors with structural highlights during the earnings disclosure phase, such as the gold sector and TMT sectors benefiting from AI trends [6][8]. - It emphasizes the importance of identifying high-growth opportunities that are less correlated with economic cycles and external risks, particularly in the AI industry and sectors with strong overseas market presence [6][8]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in industries that have undergone supply-side adjustments, including industrial metals, lithium batteries, and commercial vehicles [6][8].