中金：黄金、分红与成长

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unusual performance of various asset classes in 2023, where traditionally opposing assets such as gold, dividends, and growth stocks have shown simultaneous gains, challenging the conventional inflation and deflation asset pricing framework [2][6][7]. Group 1: Asset Performance Analysis - In the first quarter of 2023, gold and growth stocks rose together, followed by a period in the second quarter where dividends and growth stocks also increased, and again in the third quarter where gold and growth stocks performed well together [2][4]. - The traditional asset pricing theory suggests that gold benefits from inflation, dividends are more attractive in deflationary environments, and growth stocks thrive in moderate inflation and risk-on conditions [6][7]. - The article posits that the current market dynamics cannot be solely explained by inflation or deflation, indicating that other factors, such as geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases, are influencing asset prices [7][11]. Group 2: Macro Environment and Credit Cycles - The macroeconomic environment in China is characterized by a decline in overall prices, particularly in PPI, while excess liquidity is causing "scarce" assets to appreciate, reflecting a localized inflation phenomenon [11][15]. - The article emphasizes that the credit cycle framework is a more effective tool for understanding asset rotation in China, as it considers the underlying causes of inflation and deflation rather than just the outcomes [16][17]. - The credit cycle can be influenced by three main factors: new industry trends (e.g., AI), government-led fiscal stimulus, and traditional demand from the private sector [19][20]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article forecasts that the credit cycle in China is likely to shift towards a "fiscal strong + credit weak" or "fiscal weak + credit weak" phase, influenced by high base effects and slowing fiscal stimulus [28][36]. - Key indicators such as the broad fiscal deficit pulse and private sector credit pulse are expected to show downward trends, indicating a potential tightening of credit conditions [30][32]. - The article concludes that without significant policy intervention, the market is likely to continue along its current trajectory, focusing on sectors that remain resilient amid a weakening credit cycle [36][37].