美银Hartnett：当美国负债38万亿美元时，该买入美债、美股还是黄金？这很棘手

Core Viewpoint - The current investment landscape is challenging due to anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks, high government debt levels, narrow credit spreads, and elevated stock valuations, leading to a complex decision-making environment for investors [2][11]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. government debt has reached $38 trillion, diminishing the appeal of sovereign bonds as a safe haven [1][2]. - Credit spreads are at a 20-year low, providing insufficient risk compensation for corporate bonds [2]. - The CAPE ratio for stocks is at a high of 40, indicating significant potential for market corrections [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Flows - There has been a substantial outflow from cash assets, totaling $24.6 billion, with $28.1 billion flowing into the stock market, particularly technology stocks which saw a record inflow of $10.4 billion in one week [3][5]. - The gold market has also experienced a surge, with a cumulative inflow of $34.2 billion over the past 10 weeks, marking a historical high [5]. - The Chinese stock market recorded its largest weekly inflow since April 2025, amounting to $13.4 billion, reflecting a strong risk appetite among investors [8]. Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The global stock market capitalization has increased by $20.8 trillion this year, driven by a wave of liquidity from the global interest rate cuts [10]. - There are emerging risks in the market, with potential impacts on the wealthy class if asset prices decline, leading to economic deterioration [11]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The strategy proposed by Hartnett includes maintaining a long position in long-term U.S. Treasuries, with expectations that the 30-year Treasury yield will fall below 4% [13]. - Hartnett is optimistic about international markets, predicting the Hang Seng Index will rise above 33,000 points, and expects a 9% growth in global EPS over the next 12 months [15]. - For gold, Hartnett maintains a bullish outlook, forecasting prices could exceed $6,000 per ounce by spring next year, despite current high positioning among fund managers [17][19].