【招银研究|宏观点评】结构性修复延续——中国经济数据点评（2025年三季度及9月）

Overview - China's economy showed resilience in Q3, with actual GDP growing by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points from Q2. Cumulatively, GDP growth for the first three quarters reached 5.2%, indicating that the annual growth target is achievable [1]. Economic Structure - The supply-demand structure continues to deepen, with external demand showing unexpected resilience while internal demand is slowing down. In Q3, external demand growth outpaced production and internal demand, with non-US exports supporting external demand [3][6]. - Price governance has made initial progress, with the gap between nominal and actual GDP growth narrowing slightly. Actual GDP growth exceeded nominal growth by 1.1 percentage points, while nominal GDP growth fell to its lowest level in 2023 at 3.7% [6]. - Economic data for September showed a continuous slowdown in growth rates for four months, with production accelerating but investment and consumption declining more significantly [9]. Consumption - Retail sales growth in September was 3%, slightly below market expectations, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. Restaurant consumption saw a more significant drop than goods consumption, with restaurant service growth falling to 0.9% [12]. - Goods consumption growth decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.3%, with subsidized categories experiencing a more substantial decline than non-subsidized ones. The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth in Q3 was 56.6%, driving GDP growth by 2.7 percentage points [12]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment fell by 0.5% in September, with infrastructure investment down by 2.1 percentage points, manufacturing investment down by 0.9 percentage points, and real estate investment down by 13.9% [17]. - Real estate sales growth was affected by base disturbances, with both sales area and amount declining by 10.5% and 11.8%, respectively. Real estate investment growth hit a record low of -21.3% in September [17][19]. Trade - September saw a significant increase in import and export growth, with exports growing by 8.3% year-on-year in USD terms, supported by low base effects and recovery in global economic conditions. Trade surplus continued to expand [25]. - Imports also saw a notable increase, driven by demand recovery from major projects, although sustainability remains uncertain [25]. Supply - Industrial production growth accelerated in September, with the industrial added value growing by 6.5%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The production and sales rate improved slightly to 96.7% [27][28]. - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a mixed impact from "anti-involution" policies, with some industries facing production slowdowns [28]. Inflation - CPI inflation showed signs of improvement, with the decline narrowing to -0.3%. Core CPI inflation rose to 1.0%, the highest in 19 months, supported by rising gold prices and improvements in some durable goods prices [29]. Outlook - The economic outlook for Q4 remains challenging, with pressures from insufficient effective demand and low price levels. The upcoming policies from the recent party meeting may provide additional support [31].