【招银研究】海外避险情绪发酵，国内市场走势震荡——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2025.10.20-10.24）

Group 1: US Economic Overview - The US economy continues to show a "high growth, high differentiation" pattern, with Q3 GDP growth forecasted at 3.9% driven by consumption, technology, and exports [2] - Private consumption growth reached 3.5%, with significant increases in goods (4.7%) and services (2.7%) reflecting strong consumer momentum supported by the stock market and fiscal easing [2] - Investment in technology remains robust, with equipment investment growing at 8.6% and intellectual property investment at 5.4%, indicating ongoing capital expenditure in AI-related sectors [2] Group 2: Regional Bank Risks - Recent risk events involving Zion and Western Alliance banks have raised concerns about the stability of US regional banks, with reported credit fraud totaling approximately $100 million [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Performance - The market is currently dominated by risk-averse sentiment, with gold prices reaching a new high for the year, while US Treasury yields and the dollar have retreated [4] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.2%, driven by strong corporate earnings that exceeded market expectations, although concerns about regional bank risks persist [4] - Despite a potential easing of liquidity from the Federal Reserve, US stock valuations are at historical highs, suggesting a risk of slight corrections amid international uncertainties [4] Group 4: Gold Market Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks, the resumption of the Fed's easing cycle, and strong inflows into gold ETFs [5] Group 5: China Economic Conditions - Domestic demand continues to face pressure, with durable goods consumption and real estate transactions showing significant year-on-year declines, particularly in the housing market [7] - In the first three weeks of October, new home transactions in 30 major cities fell by 26.9%, while second-hand home transactions dropped by 32% [7] - Export growth remains resilient but is showing signs of marginal slowdown, with container throughput at Chinese ports reflecting strong performance despite recent declines [7] Group 6: Inflation and Fiscal Data - September CPI and PPI inflation figures show signs of improvement, with core CPI rising to 1.0%, the highest in 19 months, while PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.3% [8] - National public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year-on-year in September, with tax revenue growing by 8.7%, indicating a recovery in fiscal health [9] Group 7: Financial Data Trends - Financing demand remains weak, with a decline in both public and private sector financing needs, while M2 growth has significantly slowed to 8.4% [10][11] - The government has announced measures to revitalize local government debt, increasing the limit by 100 billion yuan for 2024 [9] Group 8: Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with risk aversion prevailing and potential for upward movement contingent on upcoming US-China negotiations [13][14] - The Hong Kong market has seen significant declines, driven by similar concerns as the A-share market, with a focus on the impact of external uncertainties [14]