美银Hartnett：当美国负债38万亿美元时，该买入美债、美股，还是黄金？这很棘手

Core Viewpoint - The current investment landscape is characterized by significant risks across mainstream assets, including high U.S. government debt, narrow corporate bond spreads, elevated U.S. stock valuations, and soaring gold prices, despite a prevailing "buy everything" sentiment in the market [1][3][11]. Group 1: Market Risks - U.S. government debt has reached $38 trillion, diminishing the safe-haven appeal of sovereign bonds [3]. - Corporate bonds are offering insufficient risk compensation due to historically low credit spreads [3]. - U.S. stock valuations are at historical highs, indicating substantial potential for market corrections [3][11]. - Gold has experienced a vertical rise, but the risks associated with chasing high prices are significant [3][11]. Group 2: Capital Flows - Recent data shows a massive outflow of $24.6 billion from cash assets into risk assets, with the stock market attracting $28.1 billion, including a record $10.4 billion inflow into tech stocks [4]. - The gold market has seen a cumulative inflow of $34.2 billion over the past 10 weeks, marking a historical peak [6]. - The Chinese stock market experienced its largest weekly inflow since April 2025, totaling $13.4 billion, reflecting a strong risk appetite under the backdrop of interest rate cuts [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company maintains a "BIG" investment strategy, focusing on Bonds, International markets, and Gold [12]. - In the bond sector, the company advocates for long positions in long-term U.S. Treasuries, predicting a drop in 30-year Treasury yields below 4% due to expected Fed rate cuts and the deflationary impact of AI on the labor market [13]. - The international market outlook remains positive, with expectations for the Hang Seng Index to exceed 33,000 points and a projected 9% growth in global EPS over the next 12 months, indicating more attractive valuations outside the U.S. [15]. - The company is highly bullish on gold, predicting prices could surpass $6,000 per ounce by next spring, despite current high allocations among fund managers being relatively low [16].