入境消费，修复几何？

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the rapid growth of inbound consumption in China, driven by policies such as expanding visa-free access and optimizing tax refund processes, with an expected growth rate of over 40% this year, potentially boosting total retail sales by approximately 0.2 percentage points [2][4]. Group 1: Inbound Consumption Recovery - In 2024, inbound consumption is projected to recover to about 90% of 2019 levels, with inbound tourists expected to reach 132 million and total spending at $94.2 billion, which corresponds to 97.2% and 93.5% of 2019 levels respectively [4][12]. - The average spending per inbound tourist in 2024 is anticipated to be $714, slightly higher than $646 in 2023 but lower than $742 in 2019 [13]. - Major cities like Beijing are expected to exceed 2019 levels in inbound tourist numbers, while Shanghai and Shenzhen are projected to recover to over 80% of 2019 levels [13][14]. Group 2: Reasons for Growth - One key reason for the high growth in inbound consumption is policy support, including the expansion of visa-free access to 47 countries and mutual visa exemptions with 29 countries, resulting in a 14.9% increase in inbound travelers [5][20]. - The optimization of tax refund standards, such as lowering the minimum refund threshold to 200 RMB and promoting "immediate refund" services, has led to a 97.5% increase in sales of tax-refunded goods [5][22]. - Additional measures to facilitate inbound consumption include improved visa policies and services for foreign visitors, with cities like Beijing implementing innovative refund service models [5][22]. Group 3: Impact of Inbound Consumption - The expected increase in inbound consumption this year is estimated to add approximately 263.8 billion RMB to total retail sales, contributing about 0.2 percentage points to the overall retail sales growth [6][24]. - The combination of high consumption and low investment from foreign entities is seen as beneficial for restoring economic balance, with foreign investment declining by 15.4% while consumption grew by 6.9% [6][24]. - There remains significant potential for growth in inbound consumption, with its contribution to GDP currently at about 0.5%, compared to 1% to 3% in major global economies [7][24].