数据点评 | 三季度经济：“韧性”的来源？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - The economic growth in the third quarter is supported by short-term factors and medium-term resilience, maintaining a reasonable growth rate [2][8] - GDP growth is driven by resilient service consumption, improved external demand, significant construction activity, and a phase of inventory replenishment [2][8] GDP Analysis - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter is 4.8%, matching expectations, with service consumption contributing 2.7 percentage points to GDP [2][5] - External demand has improved, and construction activity surged by 22.9 percentage points in September, boosting capital formation in GDP [2][8] Production Insights - Industrial value-added growth reached 6.5% in September, driven by specific sectors like the automotive industry, which saw a 7.6% increase [2][13] - Downstream production showed significant improvement, while upstream production remained weak due to declining investments [2][13][14] Retail and Consumption - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.0% in September, with a notable decline in retail sales of limited-value goods, while service consumption remained strong with a 5.2% increase [3][20] - The automotive sector showed signs of recovery, influenced by anticipated adjustments in subsidy policies [3][20] Real Estate Sector - The "guarantee delivery" and "existing home sales policy" have been effectively implemented, leading to a significant increase in construction activity [3][24] - Although housing prices in 70 cities showed a year-on-year increase, they remained negative on a month-on-month basis, indicating a weak recovery in sales [3][24] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment continues to face challenges, with a year-on-year decline of 6.5% in September, primarily due to accelerated debt repayment occupying investment funds [4][33] - The construction and installation investment saw a significant drop of 15.7%, while other expenses increased by 10.1% [4][33] Economic Outlook - Despite increasing internal economic pressures, policies are actively countering these challenges, suggesting resilience in the economy for the fourth quarter [4][42] - The anticipated decline in short-term production factors may lead to downward pressure on industrial production, but policy measures, including the issuance of 500 billion yuan in local special bonds, are expected to stabilize investment [4][43]