国泰海通｜政策研究：“十五五”：新阶段、新环境与新使命

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026-2030) is crucial for China to achieve its 2035 modernization goals, emphasizing the need for high-quality development driven by new productivity and technological innovation [1] Group 1: International Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will face unprecedented changes in the global landscape, with a shift in power dynamics and intensified competition in technology and industries [2] - The restructuring of global supply chains is characterized by regionalization, nearshoring, and localization, necessitating a proactive approach to adapt to these changes [2] - The weakening of multilateral mechanisms like the WTO and the intensifying competition in emerging fields such as digital economy and climate change require China to enhance its openness and adaptability [2] Group 2: Domestic Development Conditions - China is experiencing a new normal with both advantages and constraints, including challenges from population aging and diminishing traditional cost advantages [2] - The release of human capital and the transition from quantity to quality in the super-large market indicate a shift in economic growth drivers, with the digital economy now accounting for over 40% of GDP [2] - Despite advancements in R&D investment and patent output, China still faces risks in key core technology areas [2] Group 3: Strategic Goals and Policy Framework - The report outlines strategic goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan," aiming for an average annual economic growth rate of approximately 4.73% to double the economy or per capita income by 2035 [3] - Key quality and efficiency indicators include a rapid increase in labor productivity, R&D investment intensity reaching 3%, and a significant rise in the share of non-fossil energy consumption to around 25% [3] - The report proposes six policy recommendations, including building a modern industrial system centered on new productivity, deepening reform and opening up, promoting green transformation, and enhancing governance efficiency [3]