国泰海通 · 晨报1021｜“十五五”、海外科技

Group 1: Core Views - The "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) is crucial for establishing a foundation for achieving the 2035 modernization goals, focusing on high-quality development driven by new productive forces [2][3] - The core development line emphasizes technological innovation, with key areas including artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and low-altitude economy becoming strategic focuses in international competition [2][3] Group 2: Strategic Goals - Economic growth should maintain an average of approximately 4.73% annually to achieve the long-term goal of doubling GDP or per capita income by 2035 [3] - Key quality indicators include a continuous increase in labor productivity, R&D investment intensity reaching 3%, and a rise in the share of non-fossil energy consumption to around 25% [3] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - A systematic policy framework is proposed, including building a modern industrial system centered on new productive forces, deepening reform and opening up, and promoting green low-carbon transformation [4] - Emphasis on enhancing governance efficiency through reforms and digital governance to modernize national governance [4] Group 4: AI Industry Insights - OpenAI has signed a 10 GW computing power order with Broadcom, planning to launch custom data center chips by 2026, indicating a strategic move towards building foundational hardware capabilities [7] - OpenAI is exploring new business models, including partnerships with Walmart for direct purchasing through ChatGPT and plans to launch consumer hardware products, aiming for diversified monetization [8] - TSMC has observed stronger AI demand compared to three months ago, with optimistic revenue guidance for Q4, reflecting confidence in the AI growth trajectory [9]