不良贷款证券化对商业银行不良率的影响分析

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the negative impact of non-performing loan (NPL) securitization on the profitability of commercial banks, emphasizing that it does not effectively reduce the NPL ratio as intended [2][19]. Summary by Sections Securitization Process - A bank issued a securitized product based on personal credit NPLs, with a total asset pool amounting to 1.2 billion yuan, including 1.11 billion yuan in principal and 90 million yuan in interest and fees [3][4]. - The expected total recovery from these NPLs over 2-3 years is 237 million yuan [3]. Cash Flow and Recovery Analysis - During the transition period, approximately 105 million yuan was recovered, accounting for 60.73% of the investment amount [5]. - In the year of issuance, 135 million yuan was recovered, representing 78.08% of the investment amount [6]. - Over the first year, a total of 204.5 million yuan was recovered, exceeding the investment amount of 172.9 million yuan [7]. Impact on NPL Reduction - The bank effectively reduced its NPLs by 1.82 billion yuan through securitization, but still had to write off a difference of 928 million yuan between the principal and the amount received [8]. - The article questions whether the cash flow received through securitization is genuinely "advanced," as the bank could have received similar amounts without securitization [9][10]. Long-term Recovery Comparison - Over a full year, the total recovery from the NPLs was significantly higher than the amount received through securitization, suggesting that not securitizing would have led to better NPL management [12]. - If the bank continues to issue securitized products annually, the effectiveness of this method in reducing NPLs diminishes over time [13]. Risk Classification and Profitability - Securitization leads to the loss of potential risk classification adjustments, as the underlying assets no longer belong to the bank, which could have been reclassified from non-performing to performing [18]. - The article concludes that the costs associated with securitization, including the need to write off non-compliant loans, negatively impact the bank's profitability [19][17]. Conclusion - Overall, the article argues that the perceived benefits of NPL securitization are misleading, as traditional methods of recovery and write-offs could achieve similar or better results without the associated costs and risks of securitization [19][20].