Overall Viewpoint - The electric new energy sector is experiencing increased volatility due to fluctuating tariff policies. In Q3 2025, China's energy storage lithium battery shipments are projected to reach 165 GWh, with a total of 430 GWh expected from Q1 to Q3, and an annual forecast of 580 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 75%. Energy storage and lithium batteries remain the most prosperous sub-sectors within the electric new energy industry [4]. Group 1: Solid-State Batteries - There are significant advancements in solid-state battery technology, including improvements in interface contact through iodine ions, polymer electrolyte frameworks, and fluorinated polyether materials. The market is shifting from equipment speculation to material speculation, indicating that this trend will likely continue [4]. Group 2: Energy Storage - Due to domestic and international policy factors, energy storage demand is being anticipated earlier. The industry is expected to maintain a favorable outlook through 2025-2026. Current stock prices may continue to experience high-level fluctuations, with investment preferences leaning towards companies that resonate with AIDC power sources and photovoltaic "anti-involution" logic [4]. Group 3: Lithium Battery Materials - According to SMM data, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been rising, reaching an average of 75,500 yuan per ton as of October 17. Some negative electrode companies have increased the prices of graphite negative electrode products by 2,000-3,000 yuan per ton, primarily due to rising petroleum coke prices. Battery manufacturers are still under pressure to lower prices, while leading companies in lithium iron phosphate and separators are maintaining good capacity utilization rates, with orders flowing to small and medium-sized enterprises [4]. Group 4: Power Equipment and Photovoltaics - Currently, the stock prices of power equipment and photovoltaic sectors are relatively low, primarily due to the industry's weaker outlook. Market trends will determine the direction of these two sectors in Q4 2025, influenced by defensive factors and the preliminary results of photovoltaic "anti-involution." There are signs of improvement, but a definitive trend has yet to form, warranting close monitoring [6]. Group 5: Policy Changes - Recent announcements from the Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration regarding adjustments to value-added tax policies for wind power have garnered market attention. The cancellation of the 50% immediate refund policy for land-based wind power is noted, while the benefits for offshore wind power will be retained from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027. This policy change is expected to have a slight impact on the internal rate of return (IRR) of wind power projects, but the overall effect may be less significant than the marketization requirements outlined in document "136" [5].
【电新公用环保】市场风格决定电新板块后续走向——电新公用环保行业周报20251019（殷中枢/邓怡亮）
光大证券研究·2025-10-20 23:07