数据点评 | 三季度经济：“韧性”的来源？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The economic growth in the third quarter is supported by short-term factors and medium-term resilience, maintaining reasonable growth [2][8][42] GDP - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter is 4.8%, matching expectations, with contributions from service consumption, improved external demand, and strong construction activity [2][44] - Service consumption remains resilient, contributing 2.7 percentage points to GDP [2][8] - External demand has improved, with net exports contributing 1.2 percentage points to GDP [2][8] - Construction activity surged in September, with a 22.9% increase, boosting property sales and supporting capital formation in GDP [2][8] Production - Industrial value-added growth increased to 6.5% in September, driven by specific industries like automotive production [2][13] - The automotive sector saw a 7.6% increase in value-added, contributing to an overall production growth of 0.4% [2][13] - Downstream production showed significant improvement, while upstream production remained weak due to declining investments [2][14] Retail Sales - Retail sales below the quota showed a decline, but service consumption continued to grow at a rate of 5.2% [3][20] - Retail sales of automobiles improved due to anticipated adjustments in subsidy policies, while home appliances saw a decline [3][20] - The overall retail sales growth in September was 3.0%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3][20] Real Estate - The "guarantee delivery" and "existing home sales policy" have been implemented, leading to a significant increase in construction activity [3][24] - Property prices in 70 cities showed a slight year-on-year increase, but still negative on a month-on-month basis [3][24] - The construction growth rate surged to 1.5% in September, driven by policy support [3][24] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth remains low, with a year-on-year decline of 6.5% in September [4][33] - Other expenses saw a significant increase, while construction and installation investment dropped sharply [4][33] - The acceleration of debt repayment has occupied funds for fixed investment, contributing to the ongoing decline in investment growth [4][33] Summary - Economic pressures are increasing, but policies are actively countering these effects, with expectations for resilience in the fourth quarter [4][42] - Short-term factors like "production rush" may fade, leading to potential downward pressure on industrial production [4][42] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in local special bond quotas is expected to alleviate the impact of debt repayment on fixed asset investment [4][43]